נ
Nevuah
◉ forward signals only ◉ accuracy ledger public ← Merkavah root
נ

Prophecy
— with a ledger.

Forward-looking structural signals. Every claim tagged [s/e/t/u/p]. Every past claim graded public against outcome. The ledger is the accountability.

◉ accuracy ledger · ytd 2026
All claims tracked142
Resolved118
Hit74 · 62.7%
Miss31 · 26.3%
Partial13 · 11.0%
Class [s] hit rate78.4%
Class [e] hit rate61.2%
Class [t] hit rate44.0%
Class [p] hit rate29.1%
◉ timeline — latest first · scroll for resolved history
2026-05-15
in 22 days
NVDA breaks $145 on post-earnings gap, holds above $142 for 5 sessions.
pending
Four PSCI congressional buyers in NVDA within 14-day window before a classified AI-compute briefing; Unusual Whales 12.4K April call sweep at 145 strike; Polygon dark-pool 1.8M share print above bid. Three structural confirmations, one narrative tailwind (Robinhood most-bought).
class[s]
confidence band62%–74%
quiverquantunusual-whalespolygon
2026-05-01
in 8 days
FOMC holds rates. Dot plot median drifts to 1 cut from 2. SPX sells off 1.2-2.1% intraday.
pending
FRED T10Y breakeven inflation at 2.341% — above Fed 2.0% target. Michigan sentiment ticked higher (+1.2 prelim). Options market currently prices 54% no-cut through Jun — repricing to 72% no-cut post-meeting is the structural read. The intraday magnitude is [t], not [s].
class[e][t]
confidence band55%–68%
fredpolygon · optionsmichigan · prelim
2026-04-21
2 days ago
PLTR insider sales accelerate; stock rolls below 20-day vwap within 10 sessions.
◉ hit
Called 2026-04-09 on the back of Karp 10b5-1 $28.3M print + Huang's NVDA $41.2M sale as a composite insider-distribution signal across mega-caps. Resolved: PLTR rolled under 20d vwap on session 8 of 10, held below for 4 sessions. Structural read confirmed; sympathy trade in AI-basket marginally.
class at call[s]
outcomehit · session 8
form 4polygon
2026-04-15
8 days ago
Semi basket (SMH) outperforms SPX by 400bp over 30 sessions off congressional cluster.
◉ partial
Called 2026-03-16. SMH outperformed by 310bp at settlement — directional call correct, magnitude short. The [s] congressional-cluster fact survived; the [t] magnitude-sizing inference underperformed. Methodology note added to Daas: size-of-move reasoning should stay [t] unless options-market-implied move is pulled at call-time.
class at call[s][t]
outcomedirection yes · size 78% of target
quiverquantpolygon
2026-04-02
21 days ago
BTC prints lower low under $64K inside 7 sessions as perp funding resets negative.
◉ miss
Called 2026-03-26 on [t] reasoning (funding-driven mean reversion overlay). Perp funding did reset — but exchange outflows and USDT mint signal overwhelmed. BTC bottomed at $66,800 and ran to $71K within the window. Post-mortem: [t]-only predictions with no [s] anchor should not ship at target-class [t] — downgrade to [p] until anchored.
class at call[t]
outcomemiss · lesson logged to Daas
kraken · perp